Search results for " Predictive model"

A bark beetle infestation predictive model based on satellite data in the frame of decision support system TANABBO

2020

The European spruce bark beetle Ips typographus L. causes significant economic losses in managed coniferous forests in Central and Northern Europe. New infestations either occur in previously undisturbed forest stands (i.e., spot initiation) or depend on proximity to previous years’ infestations (i.e., spot spreading). Early identification of newly infested trees over the forested landscape limits the effective control measures. Accurate forecasting of the spread of bark beetle infestation is crucial to plan efficient sanitation felling of infested trees and prevent further propagation of beetle-induced tree mortality. We created a predictive model of subsequent year spot initiation and spo…

Predicting shifting sustainability trade-offs in marine finfish aquaculture under climate change

2018

Defining sustainability goals is a crucial but difficult task because it often involves the quantification of multiple interrelated and sometimes conflicting components. This complexity may be exacerbated by climate change, which will increase environmental vulnerability in aquaculture and potentially compromise the ability to meet the needs of a growing human population. Here, we developed an approach to inform sustainable aquaculture by quantifying spatio-temporal shifts in critical trade-offs between environmental costs and benefits using the time to reach the commercial size as a possible proxy of economic implications of aquaculture under climate change. Our results indicate that optim…

Prediction of incident type 2 diabetes mellitus based on a twenty-year follow-up of the Ventimiglia heart study.

2011

A novel algorithm to predict incident type 2 diabetes mellitus (iT2DM) is presented considering data from a 20-year prospective study in a Southern Italy population. Eight hundred and fifty-eight out of 1,351 subjects (24-85 years range of age) were selected. Incident type 2 diabetes was diagnosed in 103 patients in a 20-year follow-up. The Finnish Diabetes Risk Score (FINDRISC) and the Framingham Offspring Study simple clinical model (FOS) have been used as reference algorithms. Two custom algorithms have been created using Cox parametric hazard models followed by PROBIT analyses: the first one (VHSRISK) includes all the study subjects and the second one (VHS95RISK) evaluates separately su…

A laparoscopic risk-adjusted model to predict major complications after primary debulking surgery in ovarian cancer: A single-institution assessment

2016

Abstract Objective To develop and validate a simple adjusted laparoscopic score to predict major postoperative complications after primary debulking surgery (PDS) in advanced epithelial ovarian cancer (AEOC). Methods From January 2006 to June 2015, preoperative, intraoperative, and post-operative outcome data from patients undergoing staging laparoscopy (S-LPS) before receiving PDS (n=555) were prospectively collected in an electronic database and retrospectively analyzed. Major complications were defined as levels 3 to 5 of MSKCC classification. On the basis of a multivariate regression model, the score was developed using a random two-thirds of the population (n=370) and was validated on …

Development Of An Econometric Model Case Study: Romanian Classification System

2015

Abstract The purpose of the paper is to illustrate an econometric model used to predict the lean meat content in pig carcasses, based on the muscle thickness and back fat thickness measured by the means of an optical probe (OptiGrade PRO).The analysis goes through all steps involved in the development of the model: statement of theory, specification of the mathematical model, sampling and collection of data, estimation of the parameters of the chosen econometric model, tests of the hypothesis derived from the model and prediction equations. The data have been in a controlled experiment conducted by the Romanian Carcass Classification Commission in 2007. The purpose of the experiment was to …

Environmental suitability model for the lanner falcon Falco biarmicus feldeggii: planning, study and monitoring the Sicilian population

2017

The identification of suitable areas, by spatially explicit distribution models, is crucial for conservation of threatened species as the lanner falcon Falco biarmicus feldeggii. Monitoring and collecting data on lanner falcon during years has proven to be essential for better defining the areas of species environmental suitability. Recent research shows that breeding performances of this species are strongly influenced by bioclimatic factors, especially monthly temperature and rainfall, or linked to landscape morphology, such as the slope of territories. These environmental parameters combined with species productivity (number of fledged juveniles per checked pair) of geo-referenced breedi…

Study on the application of an interspecific competition model for the prediction of microflora behaviour during the fermentation process of S. Angel…

2009

The use of predictive microbiology models able to evaluate bacterial behaviour as a function of environmental conditions and, at the same time, of natural microflora competition was considered by several authors with different approaches. Some authors modelled bacterial competition as a function of metabolic product with particular regard to lactic acid and modelled interspecific bacterial competition introducing a term into a conventional primary predictive model, which gives account for the interaction between two populations, so that they inhibit each other to the same extent that they inhibit their own growth.

Application of an interspecific competition model to predict the growth of Aeromonas hydrophyla on fish surfaces during refrigerated storage (Anwendu…

2007

The growth of Aeromonas hydrophila and the aerobic mesophilic plate count (APC) on gilthead seabream surfaces was evaluated during refrigerated storage (21 days). The related growth curves were compared with those obtained by a conventional third order predictive model obtaining a low agreement between observed and predicted data (Root Mean Squared Error = 1.77 for Aeromonas hydrophila and 0.64 for APC).The Lotka-Volterra interspecific competition model was used in order to calculate the degree of interaction between the two bacterial populations (beta_{Ah/APC} and beta_{APC/Ah}, respectively, the interspecific competition coefficients of APC on Aeromonas hydrophila and vice-versa). Afterwa…

OPTIMIZING STOCHASTIC SUSCEPTIBILITY MODELLING FOR DEBRIS FLOW LANDSLIDES: MODEL EXPORTATION, STATISTICAL TECHNIQUES COMPARISON AND USE OF REMOTE SEN…

Il presente lavoro di ricerca è stato sviluppato al fine di approfondire approcci metodologici nell'ambito della sucscettibilità da frana. In particolare, il tema centrale della ricerca è rappresentato dal tema specifico dell'esportazione spaziale di modelli di suscettibilità nell'area mediterranea. All'interno del topic specifico dell'esportazione di modelli predittivi spaziali sono state approfondite tematiche relative all'utilizzo di differenti algoritmi o di differenti sorgenti, derivate da DEM o da coperture satellitari. The present work has been developed in order to enhance current methodological approaches within the big picture of the landslide susceptibility. In particular, the ce…

Clinical and biochemical determinants of the extent of liver steatosis in type 2 diabetes mellitus

2015

Objective Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease is very frequent in both type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) and the metabolic syndrome (MS), which share clinical and metabolic characteristics. Whether and to which extent these characteristics can predict the degree of liver steatosis are not entirely clear. Patients and methods We determined liver fat (divided into four classes) by standard sonographic images, and clinical and biochemical variables, in 60 consecutive patients with T2DM and with features of the MS. We examined both simple and multiple correlations between the degree of liver steatosis and the variables measured. Results Increased liver fat (defined as >5% of liver mass) was detec…